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Prediction for CME (2025-09-04T20:30:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-09-04T20:30Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/41047/-1
CME Note: A very faint full halo CME best seen to the SE in GOES CCOR-1 and in SOHO LASCO C3. Following SOHO backfill, the CME's start time in SOHO LASCO C2 is closer to 2025-09-04T19:48Z. The CME is completely covered by the large data gap in STEREO A COR2 starting at 2025-09-04T18Z and ending at 2025-09-04T22:08Z. Its source is likely the 2025-09-04T19:19Z central eruption near AR 4206 (N08W09), with a long, narrow southward-directed filament best seen in SDO AIA 304 and in GOES SUVI 304. Dimming and post-eruptive arcades are also best visible in SDO AIA 193, and the eruption can be seen across all wavelengths of SDO AIA imagery. Arrival signature: Significant shock arrival with magnetic field rapidly increasing from already elevated 9 nT to 15 nT and then to just under 22 nT. Solar wind speeds rapidly increase from 510 km/s to 700 km/s, and ion temperature increases from 154 Kelvin to over 650 Kelvin following the arrival. After 2025-09-06T17Z there is a significant drop of ion density (following the initial increase to just under 15 p/cc), as well as smooth rotation of two magnetic field components, very clearly indicating the magnetic cloud. Bz stays positive for many hours after the start of magnetic cloud stage.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-09-06T13:51Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-09-07T02:27Z (-5.39h, +4.1h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2025/09/04 19:40Z
Plane of Sky 1: 00:00Z; 21Rsun; SE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 00:30Z; 21Rsun; NW Direction
POS Difference: 00:30
POS Midpoint: 00:15Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 4:35

Numeric View/Impact Type: +2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~4:35
Travel Time: ~4:35 * 4:35 = 54:47

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2025-09-07T02:27Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj


Forecast Creation Time: 2025/09/05 22:41Z

Lead Time: 15.12 hour(s)
Difference: -12.60 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2025-09-05T22:44Z

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